Charles F. Manski

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Charles F. Manski(查尔斯·曼斯基)——美国西北大学经济系校董会经济学教授

　　查尔斯·曼斯基（生于1948年），西北大学经济学教授，是理性选择理论领域的计量经济学学家，也是参数识别领域的创新者。Manski 的研究涵盖计量经济学、判断和决策以及社会政策分析（如"学校选择"研究）。作为预测和决策方面的专家，他在经济学界因"部分识别"、"离散选择模型的识别"以及社会互动的识别等里程碑式工作而闻名。他还对调查中的期望衡量进行了大量实证研究。

　　查尔斯·曼斯基1948年11月27日出生于马萨诸塞州波士顿。他是大屠杀幸存者的儿子，也是苏吉哈拉签证接收人萨穆埃尔·曼斯基和埃斯特勒·宗恩·曼斯基的儿子。曼斯基在马萨诸塞州多切斯特和西罗克斯伯里长大，就读于波士顿拉丁学校，并在家庭餐厅工作。有一天，在领导托拉阅读时，他有一个顿悟，导致他远离宗教研究，走向科学怀疑：

　　"我学到了一些关于为什么教条可以顽强和不可调和的东西。许多理论提出了不可辩驳的假设。也就是说，他们发表关于世界的言论是无法反驳的。例如，不可能反驳托拉之神在六天内创造了宇宙，然后在第七天休息的假设。同样，也不可能反驳宇宙是由飞意大利面怪兽创造的假说。

　　曼斯基与芝加哥伊利诺伊大学教育系讲师凯瑟琳·曼斯基结婚，他有两个孩子，记者丽贝卡·曼斯基和社会学家本·曼斯基，还有一个孙子列夫·曼斯基。

　　Charles Manski received his B.S. and Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1970 and 1973. He first taught at Carnegie Mellon University (1973–80), moving on to the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (1979–83), and joining the faculty of the University of Wisconsin–Madison (U.W., 1983–98). While at the U.W., Manski served as Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988–91) and as Chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1994–98). Since 1997 Manski has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University.

　　Manski has served as a member of the National Research Council's (NRC) Committee on National Statistics (1996–2000), and the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (1992–98). At the NRC, he has been Chair of the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998–2001) and a member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications (2004–2007) and the Committee on Law and Justice (2009–). Manski is an elected fellow of the Econometric Society, The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.In 2009, Manski was elected to the National Academy of Sciences; he is one of 2 economists elected to the body in 2009, and one of about 60 economists elected up to that point.In 2014 he was elected a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy.

　　As of 2007 Manski's research interests focus primarily on the field of formation of social policy with partial knowledge of treatment response. Economists and doctors alike share a common interest in gauging the effect of various "treatments" delivered to "patients." Since research on treatment response rarely provides sufficient information to determine effectiveness, how should the available evidence be employed in choosing future treatments?

　　Manski has been editor of the Journal of Human Resources (1991–94), co-editor of the Econometric Society Monograph Series (1983–88), member of the editorial board of the Annual Review of Economics (2007-13), and associate editor of the Annals of Applied Statistics (2006-10), Journal of Economic Perspectives (1986–89), Econometrica (1980–88), the Journal of the American Statistical Association (1983–85, 2002–04), and Transportation Science (1978–84).

　　He has served as director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988–91) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, as chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1994–98), and as chair of the Department of Economics at Northwestern University (2007-10). At the National Research Council, he has been chair of the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998-2001), a member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications (2004–07), the Committee on Law and Justice (2009-15), the Committee on Deterrence and the Death Penalty (2010–12), the report Review Committee (from 2010), the Committee on National Statistics (1996–2000), the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (1992–98), the Committee on the Federal Role in Education Research (1991–92), the Committee on Research on Law Enforcement and the Administration of Justice (1985–87), and the Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (1983–86). Manski is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and an elected fellow of the Econometric Society, The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the British Academy.

　　Manski, Charles F. Public Policy in an Uncertain World. Harvard University Press (2013).

　　Manski, Charles F. Identification for Prediction and Decision. Harvard University Press (2007).

　　Manski, Charles F. Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response. Princeton: Princeton University Press (2005).

　　Manski, Charles F. Partial Identification of Probability Distributions. New York: Springer-Verlag (2003).

　　Manski, Charles F., with J. Pepper and C. Petrie, eds. Informing America’s Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don’t Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press (2001).

　　Manski, Charles F., with B. Fischhoff, eds. 2000. Elicitation of Preferences. Kluwer Academic Publishers (2000). Originally published in 1999 in the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 19(1/3).

　　Manski, Charles F. Identification Problems in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Harvard University Press (1995).

　　Manski, Charles F., with I. Garfinkel, eds. Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press (1992).

　　Manski, Charles F. Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics. London: Chapman and Hall (1988).

　　Manski, Charles F., with D. Wise. College Choice in America. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press (1983).

　　Manski, Charles F., with D. McFadden, eds. Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press (1981).

　　Manski, C. F. 2014. Identification of income-leisure preferences and evaluation of income tax policy. Quantitative Economics 5(1): 145–74.

　　Manski, C. F. 2014. Choosing size of government under ambiguity: Infrastructure spending and income taxation. The Economic Journal 124(576): 359–76.

　　Manski, C. F. 2013. Diagnostic testing and treatment under ambiguity: Using decision analysis to inform clinical practice. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110(6): 2064–69.

　　Manski, C. F., with J. Pepper. 2013. Deterrence and the death penalty: Partial identification analysis using repeated cross sections. Journal of Quantitative Criminology (Feb.):1–19.

　　Manski, C. F., with A. Delavande. 2012. Candidate preferences and expectations of election outcomes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(10): 3711–15.

　　Manski, C. F. 2011. Actualist rationality. Theory and Decision 71(2): 195–210.

　　Manski, C. F., with J. Dominitz. 2011. Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26(3): 352–70.

　　Manski, C. F., with W. Bruine de Bruin, G. Topa, and W. van der Klaauw. 2011. Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26(3): 454–78.

　　Manski, C. F. 2011. Policy analysis with incredible certitude. The Economic Journal 121:F261–89.

　　Manski, C. F. 2011. Choosing treatment policies under ambiguity. Annual Review of Economics 3:25–49.

　　Manski, C. F. 2011. Policy choice with partial knowledge of policy effectiveness. Journal of Experimental Criminology7(2) 111–25.

　　Manski, C. F. with W. Brock. 2011. Competitive lending with partial knowledge of loan repayment: Some positive and normative analysis. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 43(2-3): 441–59.

　　Manski, C. F. 2010. When consensus choice dominates individualism: Jensen's Inequality and collective decisions under uncertainty. Quantitative Economics 1(1): 187–02.

　　Manski, C. F. 2010. Vaccination with Partial knowledge of external effectiveness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(9): 3953–60.

　　Manski, C. F., with A. Delavande. 2010. Probabilistic polling and voting in the 2008 presidential election: Evidence from the American Life Panel. Public Opinion Quarterly 74(3): 433–59.

　　Manski, C. F., with A. Blass and S. Lach. 2010. Using elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models: Preferences for electricity reliability. International Economic Review 51(2): 421–40.

　　Manski, C. F., with F. Molinari. 2010. Rounding probabilistic expectations in surveys. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 28(2): 219–31.

　　Manski, C. F. 2009. Diversified treatment under ambiguity. International Economic Review 50(4): 1013–41.

　　Manski, C.F., with J. Pepper. 2009. More on monotone instrumental variables. The Econometrics Journal 12: S200–16.

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